Overnight Range 1.3009-1.3038
The Super Bowl lived up to the hype. Quarterback Tom Brady has been anointed the “greatest ever” while Falcon’s quarterback Matt Ryan doesn’t feel all that valuable.
President Trump’s weekend is a lot like Matt Ryan’s. Despite all his bravado, and bluster over his immigration ban, a panel of USD judges overruled him. He tweeted “Just cannot believe a judge would put our country in such peril. If something happens blame him and court system. People pouring in. Bad!
There wasn’t much follow through US dollar selling in Asia even with the end of Chinese New Year holiday’s. AUDUSD inched lower due to a soft Retail Sales report (Actual -0.1% vs. forecast 0.3%). China Service PMI was close to expectations and didn’t have an impact.
USDJPY bounced within a 112.24-112.76 range. Traders ignored comments from Eisuke Sakakibara, who in the 90’s was known as Mr. Yen, for his intervention tactics. He predicted that USDJPY would be below 100.00 by the end of 2017.
European data did not have any impact and EURUSD drifted lower throughout the session. Germany’s Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schauble, seemed to agree with President Trump’s accusation that the Euro was too weak. However, he said it was the ECB’s fault and not Germany’s.
GBPUSD has been choppy within a 1.2451-1.2506 range
Oil prices are firm but below the overnight peak. Traders are torn between rising US rig counts, high crude inventories and the onset of US crude exports, offset against new Iran sanctions and declining crude demand from China.
USDCAD continues to flirt with support in the 1.2990-1.3000 zone. The latest IMM Commitment of Traders report shows a decline in speculative short CAD positions as the bullish US dollar for 2017 trade gets unwound.
Today is shaping up to be quiet with trading confined to the overnight ranges. There aren’t any US economic data releases of note today and that will be the case all week, at least until Friday. USDCAD traders will have more to chew on. There is a lot of Canadian data in the days ahead including Trade, Ivey PMI Index, Housing starts and employment. USDCAD bulls will be looking for soft data to reinforce the Bank of Canada’s statement that risks are to the downside.
USDCAD Technical outlook:
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while prices are above the 1.29690-1.300 area supported by the break of the downtrend line from January 20. However, the move will just be consolidative unless prices move above 1.3060. For today, USDCAD support is at 1.2990 and 1.2960. Resistance is at 1.3040, 1.3060 and 1.3090
Today’s Range 1.2990-1.3060
Chart: USDCAD hourly
The intraday USDMXN technicals are bearish while prices are below 20.5660 which is guarding additional downside resistance at 20.7060. A break of 20.2840 is required to extend losses to the December low 20.1370
Chart: USDMXN 4 hour