USDCAD Overnight Range 1.3285-1.3334
USDCAD tried both sides of its recent range immediately after this morning’s data was released. It rallied on the worse-than-expected Retail Sales report and dropped on the better-than-expected CPI data.The end result is that USDCAD is right back tow where it was prior to the release. CPI can be dismissed as it won’t matter to the Bank of Canada at its December meeting. The weak Retail Sales release may have a lingering effect as it is another drop in the bad news bucket and support the bullish USDCAD bias.
WTI oil prices continue to flirt with the $40.00/barrel area and the Loonie doesn’t like it. That was the story yesterday and that was the story overnight. As long as oil prices remain depressed, the Canadian dollar will be on the defensive.
Elsewhere, Asian traders couldn’t decide which more exciting-watching paint dry or trading FX and ended up content to do as little as possible. It was only a slightly better environment in Europe. The highlight of the session was a speech by ECB president, Mario Draghi. He appears to be on message; that of additional easing measures will be introduced in December. His remarks knocked EURUSD lower although it has since recouped ½ of those losses.
Terrorists attacked a Radisson hotel in Bamako Mali overnight and had up to 170 hostages, a number that is rapidly decreasing as US and French troops are in the building. So far about 82 hostages have been freed. There isn’t any US data of note so this terrorist attack will distract traders as the market winds down for the weekend and the start of US Thanksgiving week.
USDCAD technical outlook
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.3290 looking for a break above 1.3375 to extend gains to 1.3455-65. A move below 1.3290 risks a drop to 1.3240 which is also support from the uptrend that started on October 12. USDCAD has bounced within the 1.3240-1.3375 range since November 2 and is unlikely to break out of this range today, barring a collapse in WTI prices
Forecast Range for the day 1.3270-1.3340
Chart USDCAD 4 hour